<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Mihir’s Substack]]></title><description><![CDATA[My personal Substack]]></description><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IdHk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdef5222-0d9d-46cb-be52-a9bbeb69fc84_144x144.png</url><title>Mihir’s Substack</title><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Thu, 28 May 2026 22:54:04 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[mihirnanavati@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[mihirnanavati@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[mihirnanavati@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[mihirnanavati@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[The Future of SaaS]]></title><description><![CDATA[The future of SaaS in the AI era has become a Rorschach test for the tech industry.]]></description><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/the-future-of-saas</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/the-future-of-saas</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 10 Feb 2025 21:27:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IdHk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdef5222-0d9d-46cb-be52-a9bbeb69fc84_144x144.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The future of SaaS in the AI era has become a Rorschach test for the tech industry. On one side, skeptics like Microsoft&#8217;s Satya Nadella argue that AI will &#8220;automate workflows out of existence&#8221;&#8212;the very workflows that SaaS tools monetize. The recently crowned White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks has quipped that &#8220;AI eats SaaS for breakfast,&#8221; while Klarna&#8217;s CEO axed 700 contractors (and several SaaS vendors) by deploying AI tools internally. Pundits warn of a coming &#8220;SaaS winter,&#8221; where generic apps die and IT departments reclaim control.</p><p>On the flip side, optimists point to AI&#8217;s explosion of possibilities. DeepSeek&#8217;s R1 demo showcased how commoditized inference costs could birth a Cambrian explosion of AI apps&#8212;unlocking tools we couldn&#8217;t imagine a year ago. Sequoia&#8217;s AI roadmap predicts a $10T market for AI-native applications. 60% of Y Combinator&#8217;s Winter 2024 batch were AI startups, many pitching &#8220;SaaS 3.0&#8221; tools for micro-verticals like dental clinics and trucking fleets; all of which hint at a gold rush where SaaS thrives.</p><p>But the truth about SaaS&#8217;s future isn&#8217;t in the extremes. It&#8217;s somewhere in the middle. To see why, we need to unpack two pillars of SaaS&#8217;s original promise&#8212;<em>predictable revenue growth</em> and <em>solving shared customer problems</em>&#8212;and ask how AI reshapes them.</p><h3>The "Predictable Revenue" Promise Was Always Shaky</h3><p>SaaS companies historically traded volatile license fees for recurring subscriptions, promising investors steady growth. However, <strong>high churn rates</strong> have made this predictability illusory for many. Bessemer Venture Partners&#8217; data shows even the top quartile of public SaaS companies still bleed ~6% of revenue annually to churn. I have worked at large enterprises such as Adobe, where (prior to their SaaS transformation) we could reliably predict for instance, the revenue from one generation of desktop Photoshop product to the next. At the same time, I&#8217;ve also led products in early stage SaaS startups which struggled to achieve the desired 120+% Net Dollar Retention (NDR) consistently. Which is better? My point is:  True predictability only emerges when products deliver deep, measurable value consistently. This is more important than the business model. </p><p>This then begs the questions: what is value, to whom is it delivered and how it is redefined going forward?</p><p>For now, let&#8217;s set aside the question of 'to whom'&#8212;we&#8217;ll save the debate about AI executives versus human-run companies for later. Assuming we&#8217;re talking about B2B SaaS, outcomes are business metrics like revenue, leads, expenses, headcount, compliance, and operations. <strong>In every case, AI based productivity amplifies the value delivered exponentially</strong>. Here are a few examples:  Today, we&#8217;re constrained by the number of companies we can sell to. With inference costs going down, AI apps and companies building them increases substantially. Today, we&#8217;re constrained by how many humans a recruiter can hire. There is no constraint on AI agents to &#8220;recruit&#8221; and manage. And so on&#8230; All of this paves the way for massive revenue growth&#8212;at least while this AI gold rush lasts. Stability? Unlikely. Growth? Inevitable.</p><p></p><h3>But Can't Everyone Just Build Their Own Stuff Now?</h3><p>The other promise of SaaS was to deliver cloud based solutions to *shared* customer problems. What started well in the SaaS 1.0 era with Salesforce disrupting SAP for instance, devolved more recently into &#8220;feature factories&#8221; of SaaS products, with few customers using most or all aspects of the SaaS products, shelf-ware reminiscent of desktop/installed software and a continued frustration of the lack of customization to the customers unique needs. </p><p>With that backdrop, a crucial question facing SaaS companies today is whether customers can now build solutions to their unique needs themselves using AI, with just enough of the product, no more, no less.</p><p>Companies <em>always</em> oscillate between &#8220;build vs buy.&#8221; </p><p>I&#8217;ll date myself: I lived through the 90s, when IT teams built custom apps on servers named after golf courses (Augusta, Sawgrass&#8212;don&#8217;t ask). Then Salesforce and AWS made buying easier than building. Now AI flips the script again: With Replit and Bolt and Vercel, even I can build apps as well (or poorly) as I did in the 90s.</p><p>What&#8217;s different now? The landscape has fundamentally changed due to three factors:</p><ol><li><p>Democratization of technical knowledge: Before, Programming knowledge was limited to experts who spent years mastering languages and frameworks. Now, anyone with a good idea can turn it into code through AI assistance</p></li><li><p>Elimination of human labor constraints through AI agents: Before, you could only build as much as your dev team could handle &#8211; hiring was always the bottleneck. Now, AI agents can write code 24/7, removing the human labor ceiling</p></li><li><p>Increased IT budgets: Before, IT departments ran lean, focusing budgets on maintenance and essential upgrades. Now, IT departments are pouring money into AI initiatives (8-12% of total budget, up from 1-2% in 2022)</p></li></ol><p>Yet, this shift isn't uniform. <strong>Democratizing tools &#8800; democratizing expertise</strong>.</p><ul><li><p><strong>Horizontal SaaS</strong> (generic CRM, project management) is in trouble. If I can build a ChatGPT wrapper to manage tasks, why pay $20/user/month for Asana?</p></li><li><p><strong>Vertical SaaS</strong> thrives. Think Veeva Systems&#8217; FDA compliance tools for pharma or Toast&#8217;s restaurant-grade inventory AI. These tools aren&#8217;t just software&#8212;they&#8217;re bundles of industry-specific data and hard-won tribal knowledge. </p></li></ul><h3>The Real Bottleneck? It's Not What You Think</h3><p>Here's what's really holding things back: most of us are still figuring out how to use AI effectively. Sure, AI capabilities are mind-blowing, but ask most people to write a decent prompt or imagine a 10x improvement in productivity using AI? That's where things get sticky. There&#8217;s a massive gap between what's possible and what people can actually do. AI can code, analyze, and even design. But it can&#8217;t (yet) replicate the spark of creativity needed to reimagine workflows.</p><h2>So What's Next?</h2><p>The future of SaaS isn't binary&#8212;it's evolving. The winners won't just be the ones with the best AI; they'll be the ones who can:</p><ul><li><p>Focus on delivering measurable, deep value and nothing more, nothing less</p></li><li><p>Embrace AI to remove traditional scaling constraints</p></li><li><p>Build moats through specialized knowledge</p></li><li><p>Help regular humans do amazing things with AI</p></li></ul><p>While everyone's debating whether AI will kill SaaS, they're missing the plot: AI isn't just changing how we deliver software &#8211; it's exponentially expanding what's possible. The quarterly recurring revenue spreadsheet might look different, but the opportunity? It's never been bigger.</p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Advanced ARR Considerations in B2B SaaS]]></title><description><![CDATA[This is the third and final article in a series exploring aspects of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in B2B SaaS businesses.]]></description><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/advanced-arr-considerations-in-b2b</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/advanced-arr-considerations-in-b2b</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 21 Oct 2024 02:16:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IdHk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdef5222-0d9d-46cb-be52-a9bbeb69fc84_144x144.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is the third and final article in a series exploring aspects of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in B2B SaaS businesses. In the first article, we <a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-149076941?r=3k97z&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web">unpacked definitions</a> and clarified common misconceptions about ARR. Subsequently, we highlighted <a href="https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/demystifying-the-nuances-of-annual?r=3k97z">typical situations that impact ARR</a>. Now, we'll explore less common but critical scenarios affecting ARR, often seen in companies offering products and services with variable usage components and/or operations in multiple geographies.</p><h2><strong>"Use It Or Lose It"</strong></h2><p>In my <a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-149076941?r=3k97z&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web">earlier post</a>, I mentioned that SaaS contracts often include usage-based components of value, such as contractually committing to use a certain number of units, often called usage credits, priced at a discount relative to non-committed options. Typically, SaaS contracts include restrictions on how these usage credits must be consumed. They must be used within a specific period, often monthly, and cannot be rolled over to the next period. Hence the term "Use It Or Lose It."</p><p>We implement such restrictions to ensure the product or service is used frequently and recurrently, giving us the confidence to count the revenue as ARR. Without such constraints, if a customer's annual contract gives them access to, say, 1000 usage credits, and they wait until the twelfth month to use those credits, it could be argued that the uncertainty of renewals is higher, potentially jeopardizing what counts as ARR.</p><p>That said, these restrictions can often conflict with customers' operations, particularly related to seasonality. A customer may want to use more of your product at the beginning or end of the quarter or during annual conferences and events. A monthly "use it or lose it" usage credit model can be limiting in such cases.</p><p><em><strong>One way to balance this perceived tension is to offer relief on the "use it or lose it" window when the customer has earned it</strong></em>. Specifically, in the first year of a customer's contract, they must utilize the usage credits monthly. Once they have confirmed they get value from your product/service and have renewed the SaaS contract for the second year, they can subsequently utilize the usage credits on a quarterly basis.</p><h2><strong>Foreign Exchange Rate</strong></h2><p>Companies operating globally may have SaaS contracts with customers in regional currencies. Yet, counting and reporting on ARR requires converting the amounts to the currency of the country where the company has its global headquarters. Fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to changes in reported ARR that could sometimes be meaningful.</p><p>While finance teams typically employ currency hedging strategies, it's outside the scope of this discussion, which deals specifically with ARR implications. That said, there are a few approaches companies should take to ensure exchange rate considerations are handled appropriately:</p><ol><li><p>Maintain a record of currency exchange rates and apply them to known contracts. For instance, the US Treasury Department maintains a <a href="https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/treasury-reporting-rates-exchange/treasury-reporting-rates-of-exchange#introduction">database</a> of exchange rate history between currencies.</p></li><li><p>Use it to determine the exchange rate as of the beginning of the month and apply it to the subscription revenue that falls within that month.</p></li><li><p>Take that same exchange rate and apply it to all the remaining months in the term of the contract.</p></li></ol><p>Let's walk through an example:</p><p>Consider a customer with a subscription from Jan 1, 2024, to Dec 31, 2024, for EUR &#8364;100,000, while the company is headquartered in the US. To report the ARR on any date in March 2024:</p><ul><li><p>The exchange rate of EUR to USD on Dec 31, 2023 (1&#8364; = $1.10) is applied to the January revenue, which is $9,167 (&#8364;8,333 &#215; 1.1)</p></li><li><p>The exchange rate of EUR to USD on Jan 31, 2023 (1&#8364; = $1.081) is applied to the February revenue, which is $9,007</p></li><li><p>The same rate is carried over to March and beyond, leading to an ARR of $9,167 + $9,007 &#215; 11 = $108,224 as of any date in March 2024</p></li></ul><p>Note that this can lead to situations where the ARR fluctuates month to month even when no other changes to subscription contracts occur. This is intentional because it more accurately reflects the value of the underlying contract in any given fixed currency.</p><h2><strong>Contractual Clauses</strong></h2><p>The value of the underlying contract can be impacted negatively by the presence of certain clauses in the SaaS subscription contracts. This can affect whether the revenue from those contracts can be included in ARR. Let's elaborate further:</p><h3><strong>Termination for Convenience</strong></h3><p>Often when there's a power imbalance between negotiating parties, such as a small startup selling to a large enterprise customer, the customer's procurement or legal team may want to include a provision in the contract that allows them to terminate the contract without requiring any justification. Of course, it's reasonable to expect that there should be grounds for termination if the product doesn't perform. But in this case, "for convenience" means they can cancel for any reason or none at all.</p><p>Given that, even though the revenue from these contracts may be included in ARR, auditors and independent assessors of the underlying value of the SaaS contracts scrutinize it closely and could flag it for removal from ARR consideration. Their concern is understandable: after all, if a customer can cancel their contract at any time, its revenue is hardly recurring.</p><p>Even though the product may be strong and the odds of termination occurring may be low, it nevertheless helps to de-risk this situation. <em><strong>My advice is to ask the customer for payment upfront</strong></em>. If the customer has paid for their annual commitment, and subsequently there is a dispute, it's no different from the approach for (re)calculating ARR I described in the previous article on non-payments.</p><h3><strong>Pilots and Proofs-of-Concept</strong></h3><p>Customers often require short-term use of the product to prove its value before committing to a long-term contract. These pilots or proofs-of-concept are particularly common for a new product or an emerging brand selling to an established customer. It's clear that pilots of 3 to 6-month duration without any annual contractual commitment do not signify recurrence and hence do not qualify as ARR.</p><p>However, if the customer is indeed ready to commit to an annual contract but wants some assurance it will work as promised, you can structure a "3+12" or "6+12" contract. These contracts commit the customer to a 12-month period after the 3 or 6 months of the pilot period - all upfront. Instead of the customer opting in to sign up for an annual contract after the pilot, they have the right to opt-out within the first 3 or 6 months. If they don't, the contract renews for an annual period after the pilot period.</p><p>In this case, <em><strong>the revenue of the contract can be included in ARR, but only after the initial pilot term has concluded</strong></em>, which confirms that the customer found value during the pilot period. By not opting out of the subsequent annual term of the contract, they are committing to the duration of the SaaS contract.</p><h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2><p>In this final article of our ARR series, we've explored advanced considerations that impact ARR calculations in B2B SaaS businesses. We've examined how "Use It Or Lose It" policies can affect customer behavior and ARR recognition, the complexities of managing ARR across multiple currencies, and the impact of specific contractual clauses on ARR eligibility. These nuanced scenarios underscore the importance of a thoughtful approach to ARR calculation and reporting. By carefully navigating these complexities, SaaS companies can ensure their ARR figures accurately reflect the true value of their customer contracts, providing a solid foundation for financial reporting, investor relations, and strategic decision-making in an ever-evolving SaaS landscape.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Demystifying the Nuances of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)]]></title><description><![CDATA[In our previous post, we established a clear definition of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and addressed common misconceptions about what should and shouldn't be included in ARR calculations.]]></description><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/demystifying-the-nuances-of-annual</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/demystifying-the-nuances-of-annual</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 27 Sep 2024 17:28:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IdHk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdef5222-0d9d-46cb-be52-a9bbeb69fc84_144x144.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In our <a href="https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/understanding-annual-recurring-revenue?r=3k97z">previous post</a>, we established a clear definition of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and addressed common misconceptions about what should and shouldn't be included in ARR calculations. Here, we'll explore some widely practiced yet often misunderstood factors that influence ARR.</p><h2><strong>Non-Recurring Services</strong></h2><p>The core purpose of ARR is to measure the predictable revenue stream from a customer over the duration of their contract. With this in mind, it's crucial to identify and exclude services that aren't recurring. Here are some examples:</p><ol><li><p><strong>One-time fees</strong>: These include onboarding or implementation fees, which are sometimes charged to help customers set up and start using the product or service.</p></li><li><p><strong>Proofs-of-concept (POCs)</strong>: Customers occasionally sign up for short-term agreements (e.g., 3 or 6 months) to evaluate the product's value before committing to a longer-term contract. Unless there's a contractual commitment to automatically transition to a subsequent contract upon successful completion of the POC, these shorter agreements shouldn't count toward ARR.</p></li><li><p><strong>Month-to-month contracts</strong>: While it's tempting to include these in ARR calculations (especially if certain conditions are met, such as a history of multiple renewals or a low churn rate), we should resist this urge, especially for B2B SaaS companies. Business buyers make more rational economic decisions than individual consumers. Further, many modern B2B subscription models offer incentives to encourage users to switch from monthly to annual plans. Given that, <em><strong>If a customer isn't yet convinced of the value proposition enough to commit to a yearly payment, we haven't earned the right to count that revenue as ARR</strong></em>.</p></li></ol><h2><strong>Handling Cancellations</strong></h2><p>Reporting ARR for specific time periods can be challenging, despite the clear principle that ARR should exclude cancellations based on contract end dates. This complexity arises because ARR is a point-in-time measure, and B2B SaaS contracts often align with calendar months.</p><p>Consider this example:</p><ul><li><p>Annual SaaS contract value: $100,000</p></li><li><p>Start date: April 1, 2023</p></li><li><p>End date: March 31, 2024</p></li><li><p>Customer notifies they won&#8217;t renew the contract beyond its end date</p></li></ul><p>Technically, the service remains available to the customer until midnight on March 31, 2024. Including the $100,000 in ARR as of March 31, 2024, creates counterintuitive situations when reporting ARR for March 2024, Q1 2024, or Q2 2024:</p><ul><li><p>March 2024 ARR (as of April 1, 2024): The $100,000 would be included in March's ARR, despite knowing the contract won't continue.</p></li><li><p>Q1 2024 ARR (as of April 1, 2024): The contract would be counted in Q1 ARR, even with its imminent cancellation.</p></li><li><p>Q2 2024 ARR (as of April 1, 2024): Here's where it gets particularly counterintuitive. Typically, a period's beginning ARR matches the previous period's ending ARR. Thus, Q2's beginning ARR would include this $100,000 contract, even though it's no longer active.</p></li></ul><p>While technically accurate based on contract dates, this approach doesn't reflect business reality. The customer has effectively churned in March, but our ARR calculations wouldn't show this until Q2 begins.</p><p>To address this issue and provide a more accurate representation of forward-looking ARR trends, it's crucial to:</p><ol><li><p><em><strong>Differentiate between end-of-period and beginning-of-period points for ARR</strong></em></p></li><li><p><em><strong>Use the beginning-of-period as the anchor point for measuring monthly or quarterly boundaries</strong></em></p></li></ol><p>Let's break this down:</p><ul><li><p>Defining period boundaries for ARR:</p><ul><li><p>March 2024: From March 1, 2024 to April 1, 2024</p></li><li><p>Q1 2024: From January 1, 2024 to April 1, 2024</p></li><li><p>Q2 2024: From April 1, 2024 to July 1, 2024</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Evaluating the contract status:</p><ul><li><p>At the start of March (March 1, 2024), the contract is active and counted in ARR.</p></li><li><p>When the contract expires on March 31, 2024, we immediately exclude it from ARR calculations.</p></li><li><p>This exclusion applies to the entire March period, Q1 2024, and naturally, to April 2024 and Q2 2024.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Impact on reporting (as of March 31, 2024):</p><ul><li><p>March 2024 ARR: The contract is excluded as it's not active on the period's last date (April 1, 2024).</p></li><li><p>Q1 2024 ARR: Similarly excluded, reflecting the cancellation within the quarter.</p></li><li><p>April 2024 ARR: Excluded as it's not active on the period's first date (April 1, 2024).</p></li><li><p>Q2 2024 ARR: Excluded, as it's not active on the quarter's first date (April 1, 2024).</p></li></ul><p></p></li></ul><p>This approach ensures:</p><ul><li><p>ARR calculations closely align with business reality, capturing changes at the earliest possible moment.</p></li><li><p>We avoid artificially inflating ARR with contracts known not to renew.</p></li><li><p>Consistency in period-over-period comparisons, as one period's end aligns perfectly with the next period's start.</p></li></ul><p>By implementing this method, we establish a clear, consistent rule for when contracts enter and exit ARR calculations. This avoids the counterintuitive situations discussed earlier and provides a more accurate picture of our recurring revenue.</p><h2><strong>Late or Non-Payments</strong></h2><p>Sometimes, customers don't explicitly cancel their SaaS contract but exhibit behaviors that mimic churn. In these cases, we can't count on that revenue recurring annually, and it should be excluded from ARR calculations.</p><p>It's important to distinguish between the contract amount (the customer's commitment to pay) and actual payments (fulfillment of that commitment). For example, a customer might sign a $120,000 annual contract in January 2024, committing to quarterly payments of $30,000.</p><p>Scenarios that may lead to non-payments or delayed payments include:</p><ol><li><p>Customer financial difficulties (including bankruptcy)</p></li><li><p>Disputes over product/service value delivery</p></li><li><p>Leadership changes resulting in contract rescission</p></li></ol><p>In these situations, remove the entire contract amount from ARR calculations as soon as non-payment occurs. If payments resume, reverse the removal. <em><strong>Remember, ARR is a point-in-time metric, which can lead to counterintuitive fluctuations even when no other changes have occurred</strong></em>.</p><h2><strong>Embracing ARR Complexity</strong></h2><p>This post highlights that while ARR calculations need to be accurate, they can be complicated due to the complex nature of customer relationships. Understanding these nuances leads to better preparedness and a more accurate pulse on the business.</p><p>Stay tuned for the third and final post in this series, where we'll explore industry, vertical, and stage-specific factors that impact ARR calculations.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Understanding Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in B2B SaaS]]></title><description><![CDATA[Definitions and Common Misconceptions]]></description><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/understanding-annual-recurring-revenue</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/understanding-annual-recurring-revenue</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 18 Sep 2024 22:10:59 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IdHk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdef5222-0d9d-46cb-be52-a9bbeb69fc84_144x144.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is the first of three articles detailing Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) aspects in B2B SaaS. In this piece, we'll uncover commonly misconstrued definitions and how to measure ARR accurately. Subsequently, we'll delve into commonly observed customer scenarios and their implications for ARR. Finally, we'll describe industry and stage-specific nuances that impact ARR.</p><h2><strong>The Essence of ARR</strong></h2><p>The spirit of measuring Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is to gauge the level to which a subscription business' revenue is indeed recurring. For any given point in time, ARR is the annualized recurring revenue from all active subscription contracts. More specifically, on any particular day, ARR represents the annualized recurring revenue associated with all active contractual commitments on that day. These contractual commitments must be at least half-yearly. For month-to-month contracts, they need to be active for at least 6 months to be counted.</p><h2><strong>Common Misconceptions about ARR</strong></h2><p>Let's look at some common misconceptions in defining ARR:</p><h3><strong>1. ARR vs. Annual Run Rate Revenue</strong></h3><p>Recently, we've seen the acronym ARR being used to describe a different metric: Annual Run Rate Revenue. This measure takes the revenue recognized in the latest period and annualizes it. However, Annual Run Rate Revenue is not the same as Annual Recurring Revenue. If the revenue isn't from subscription contracts, it doesn't count as ARR.</p><p>While there are justifiable reasons for describing revenue as an annual run rate (e.g., past performance may not accurately indicate future revenue due to accelerating growth, early-stage trajectory, or a sizable acquisition), it's crucial to remember: if it's not revenue from a subscription contract, it's not ARR.</p><h3><strong>2. ARR vs. CARR (Committed/Contracted ARR)</strong></h3><p>SaaS subscription contracts have two key dates: the signature date (when the contract is signed) and the start date (when the service is meant to begin). These are often not the same. The contract might start later than the signature date due to:</p><ul><li><p>Timing reasons (e.g., the customer wants to start billing on the first of the month)</p></li><li><p>Budget reasons (e.g., the customer's software budget becomes available on the first day of the fiscal quarter)</p></li><li><p>Project alignment (e.g., the customer is updating their website and needs to wait until that project is finished to start your contract)</p></li></ul><p>In these situations, when you know the contract is about to start but hasn't yet, you can't count the revenue as ARR. However, this can be tracked as a separate metric: Committed ARR or Contracted ARR (CARR). CARR is the total contracted recurring revenue from subscriptions over any given period, including revenue that is committed but not yet billed or realized.</p><h3><strong>3. ARR vs. Usage-Based Revenue (UBR)</strong></h3><p>Usage-based revenue is typically separate from SaaS revenue and ARR because there's no commitment to use the product or service on a recurring basis, codified via a contract. However, SaaS contracts often include usage-based components of value, such as contractually committing to use a certain number of units of value, typically per month.</p><p>In these cases, it's clear that the usage-based revenue associated with the minimum contractually committed units of value should be included in ARR. But what about when a customer uses the product or service beyond their minimal commitment?</p><p>I'd argue that the revenue associated with the "overage" beyond the commitment should be included in ARR, as long as: a) The overage is predictable over a given timeframe b) The customer has renewed their SaaS contract more than the typical customer in the cohort</p><p>This is admittedly a contrarian opinion. The prevailing consensus view is to exclude usage-based and overage revenue from ARR. However, when we examine the original intent of measuring ARR, we're trying to answer the question: how much recurring revenue will accrue from the customer base?</p><p>Consider this scenario: a customer signed a SaaS contract for $100,000 five years ago, which included a commitment to use 100 units of value per month, each worth $1,000. If this customer has renewed their contract five years in a row and consistently used 120 units of value each year, it's hard to argue this customer isn't generating $120,000 of recurring revenue annually.</p><p>Let's end on that hot take. In the next writeup, I'll share some commonly observed customer scenarios that impact how and what we count as ARR. Stay tuned!</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Embracing Stillness: Discoveries at a Vipassana Camp]]></title><description><![CDATA[Sometimes, the loudest lessons in life come from the sound of silence.]]></description><link>https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/coming-soon</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/p/coming-soon</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mihir Nanavati]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2023 21:53:32 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IdHk!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdef5222-0d9d-46cb-be52-a9bbeb69fc84_144x144.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sometimes, the loudest lessons in life come from the sound of silence. Recently, I spent ten days at a Vipassana meditation camp, a place where silence guides you towards self-discovery and peace. This blog post is about that journey &#8211; the challenges, the insights, and the lessons learned in the embrace of stillness.</p><h5>What is Vipassana?</h5><p>Vipassana means 'to see things as they really are'. It is a non-religious, non-sectarian meditation technique, pioneered by Gautama Buddha, and intended as a universal remedy for universal ills. Vipassana aims to not only calm but also purify the mind. To purify one's mind, it is crucial to recognize and train oneself not to react to cravings (of pleasant desires) and aversions (to unpleasant situations). Everyone suffers in their own way, and the cycle of misery only breaks when the mind stops reacting to these cravings and aversions. Vipassana offers a method for applying concentration, helping the mind learn not to react.</p><h5>Why I Attended the Camp</h5><p>The introductory practice of Vipassana meditation is taught at a 10-day silent retreat. My primary goal was to focus my mind away from distractions and, secondarily, to seek calmness and balance. I was drawn to Vipassana for its non-religious, non-commercial nature. Fortunately, I had a 10-day break from work at the end of 2023, which allowed me to attend a camp in Occidental, California, from December 18th to December 29th, 2023.</p><h5>First Impressions</h5><p>Upon arrival at the camp, the efficiency and preparedness of the operation were evident. After completing the necessary forms and checking in our devices, we were assigned bunk beds in a dorm and briefed about the rigorous commitment ahead. The &#8220;Noble Silence&#8221; started after a light meal at the end of orientation. This meant no talking, communicating, or even making eye contact with others. Noble Silence is part of the practice's three precepts: &#8220;Sila&#8221; (moral conduct), &#8220;Samadhi&#8221; (concentration), and &#8220;Panna&#8221; (wisdom).</p><h5>The Challenge of Silence</h5><p>As an introvert, I found the silence comforting rather than challenging. I take quarterly self-care silent digital detox retreats on my own for 3-5 days, so I had some practice going into this extended routine. Adjusting to the routines of 11 other dorm-mates without communication took some time, but everyone was considerate and mindful. The selflessness and mindfulness of others, like the person above me who carefully climbed his bunk, were appreciated.</p><h5>Schedule &amp; Meditation Sessions</h5><p>The daily routine began at 4 AM and ended at 9:30 PM, including 10-11 hours of meditation, an hour of discourse, and breaks. The main adjustment was the absence of dinner (you get tea and a fruit at 5 PM), but this became easier over time. The highlight of the day was the teacher&#8217;s discourse at 7:15 PM, where they played a video recording of S.N. Goenka (main teacher who pioneered the program and created the structure) explaining the Vipassana philosophy with stories and anecdotes with increasing depth each day.</p><p>During the first three days, we got to learn the basics of the &#8220;Anapana&#8221; meditation technique, which teaches us to observe the natural breath and achieve concentration of mind (&#8220;Samadhi&#8221;). It was immediately clear why we needed 10 to 11 hours of practice per day for 10 days when, during the first day itself, I struggled to keep my concentration for more than 10 minutes or so at a stretch. By continuing to practice hour by hour on just observing the breath, by day 3, I found myself making substantial progress and was able to keep the concentration going for longer and longer stretches of time.</p><h5>Physical &amp; Emotional Challenges</h5><p>On day 4, we were taught the main Vipassana meditation technique, where you are taught to concentrate and observe sensations (&#8220;Sankhara&#8221;) on the entire length of your body without any reactions or judgment, i.e., with Equanimity. These sensations can be pleasant (e.g., tingling, pulsing sensations) or unpleasant (e.g., pain, hard sensations on parts of the body) and represent cravings and aversions respectively. The idea is to plainly observe these sensations and ultimately use this ability to control your mind to avoid reacting to cravings and aversions or recover from unpleasant thoughts as quickly as possible. A big part of the teaching focuses on &#8220;Anicca&#8221; (impermanence), i.e., everything is subject to change. Something that you have a craving for may give you momentary satisfaction, but it&#8217;s impermanent. Similarly, one may be going through a rough patch, but that&#8217;s also temporary and bound to change over time. Internalizing this concept of impermanence through hour over hour of meditation proved to be very helpful in calming my mind. My mind would often wander to topics related to work, family, the future, etc., and every time I came back to &#8220;this too shall change,&#8221; it brought even-keeled calmness.</p><p>The harder challenge, though, was physical. From day 4 onwards, you are asked to meditate in a posture with &#8220;Sittings of Strong Determination&#8221; (&#8220;Adhithanna&#8221;). To achieve the strongest concentration of mind, one has to sit straight for an hour with no movement of the hands, legs, or arms at all. This was very painful for most people. I was fortunate because I received an exception and was able to sit on a chair due to a sprained lower back and hamstring, so it was more manageable, but for most students, sitting cross-legged with a straight back and no movement for an hour is tough, to say the least.</p><h5>Insights &amp; Transformations</h5><p>The reinforcement of &#8220;Anicca&#8221; (impermanence) through repeated long stretches of meditation will remain entrenched in my mind, and I am hopeful this will be key to controlling my emotions and reactions. I am catching myself from reacting adversely to unpleasant thoughts and interactions by reminding myself it&#8217;s all impermanent. I&#8217;m observing my breath and sensations on my body more and more and using this technique to stay calmer. Even though it&#8217;s early days, I am hopeful this focus and mindset will continue.</p><p>The 9th day of the camp was the hardest, physically and emotionally. After 9 days of ~250 people meditating in one hall, students started getting sick with a cough, cold, and COVID, including me. Further exacerbating things was the cold, rainy weather. Just going from the dorm to the washroom 100 feet away in the rain through mud early in the morning to brush your teeth was daunting when you&#8217;re sick, yet have to endure through the pain. Emotionally too, the culmination of the Vipassana meditation teaching happens on the 9th day and one is told that deep memories from the past might surface and trigger strong emotional reactions. These represent latent &#8220;Sankharas&#8221; and it's good to let them surface up so they can be eradicated away. I too felt a rush of emotions from past memories, but it wasn&#8217;t clear what triggered them. Nevertheless, it was cathartic and ultimately calming.</p><h5>Conclusion &amp; Final Thoughts</h5><p>On day 10, the Noble Silence is broken and students are allowed to talk to each other. We even received a treat of Vegan Burgers for lunch! The atmosphere is clearly lighter, and everyone shared notes and humorous anecdotes of our snoring prowess. There are no fees for the camp, but we&#8217;re encouraged to donate so future students can benefit from the services they provide. We received the final discourse exhorting us to continue meditating one hour in the morning and one hour in the evening, which admittedly will be challenging. The idea is that the 10-day camp was just the initiation process of teaching us Vipassana meditation, but the benefits will accrue only through continued and repeated practice.</p><p>I hope to continue practicing what I learned. It&#8217;s a clear, logical, practical, and non-dogmatic approach to calming and purifying your mind. Whether this is for you is up to personal preference. I would encourage you to read up more and if this interests you, give it a try! Just be prepared for a brutal 10 days. It will be one of the hardest things you will ever do, but well worth it in the end!</p><p></p><h5>Additional Resources</h5><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.dhamma.org/en/about/qanda">FAQs on the camp</a></p></li><li><p><a href="https://www.dhamma.org/en-US/courses/search">Course Listings</a></p></li><li><p><a href="https://santosa.dhamma.org/">Bay Area Vipassana Center</a></p></li></ul><p></p><p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://mihirnanavati.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>